Every few years, it seems there is a new up and coming disease to test its mettle against humanity. Right now that disease seems to be the coronavirus. News articles are dropping by the day with new reports on death tolls, infection rates, quarantines, new areas of infection, etc., building it up to be a scary enough bug to make you double check that you lock your doors at night. But is it truly something that the general American public needs to concern themselves with? Many are quick to remind us that the flu is what we should really be worried about, pointing towards stats from the CDC reporting that there’s been an estimated 18 million cases and 10,000 deaths in the US this flu season.
So which threat should the average layperson actually direct their efforts towards avoiding? The known killer with a firm historical grip or the newcomer surrounded by unknowns? One would think the easiest way is to simply look at infection vs mortality rates. So first, the flu: looking just at the US, 10,000 deaths out of 18 million cases would put the odds of dying from a case of this year’s flu strain at .005%. On the other hand, using data from an article by the Scientific American, there have been about 20,000 reported cases, and 427 deaths. Looking purely at the numbers, 10,000 is a whole lot more than 427, but the odds of dying from the currently are around 2%. In that case, then it’s obviously coronavirus that needs to be avoided then?
I just don’t think its so simple to be comparing these two diseases. There are too many changed variables between the two diseases that its an apples and oranges discussion. Obviously there are going to be a lot more flu cases than cases of the coronavirus because the flu is present around the entire country, and coronavirus has just emerged in China, so transmission rates are hard to compare. The rate of death is higher for the coronavirus, but there’s also not a vaccine of any kind for it, and it is hard to compare all the environmental factors that differ between Wuhan, China where the virus is most prevalent, and the vast array of different areas in America. Coupled with the fact that there is so much we still don’t know about the mechanisms of the disease, and it makes a mess of a comparison. There is little reason to be watching out more for one over the other, especially considering that it is believed that the coronavirus spreads by small droplet transmission, similar to the flu. So, at the end of the day, wash your hands and cover your mouth when sneezing, coughing, or when you feel like you are about to say something about whether the flu or the coronavirus is more worrisome.
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